The premise is that before life began, there was a primordial soup. The soup, it is assumed, contained the necessary chemical building blocks of life. It was told me when I was growing up that lightning strikes into this primordial soup led to the formation of the earliest forms of life on the cellular level, like bacteria or protozoans like the Amoeba.
Now in this assumption, those essential building blocks were just there already somehow. The only real requirement was that these building components be mixed together. The high energy of a direct lightning strike would fuse these building blocks into the larger functional pieces that are absolutely essential to be what we call life. These functional pieces would by necessity be able to also propagate that life.
These two large functional components are DNA (or RNA if you wish) and Polymerase.
DNA stands for deoxyribonucleic acid. It is a very long molecular string containing only one of four different nucelotides at any point in the string. The four nucleotides in DNA are adenine, guanine, cystine, and thymine.
Polymerase is a protein with a special function. Proteins are made up of a string of amino acids. At each point in the protein string there is one the 21 amino acids. The function of Polymerase, like all proteins, occurs because of the special sequence of amino acids that are linked together chemical. The precise order of the amino acids confers a particular shape of the protein in space. That shape is what gives it functionality. One wrong, missing, or additional amino acid will change the shape of the protein and usually make the protein non-functional.
The nucleotides of DNA are strung together in long chains. Even more importantly they are strung together in a special molecular Morse code, so that each group of three nucleotides codes for for a specific amino acid in a protein.
DNA then is the nothing more than the chemical map which is used to create proteins like Polymerase. Polymerase is unique in that it is the the protein that takes that DNA map and creates other proteins (as well as the Polymerase itself). DNA can have billions of nucleotides and thus will have many, many protein maps along its length.
For life to exist and propagate itself, both the DNA chemical map and the Polymerase protein must exist simultaneously. DNA without Polymerase would not be able to propagate itself. Polymerase could not be created without its DNA map.
Or could it?
Polymerase itself in some ogranisms is a chain of less than 200 amino acids. Surely with just that few components in the chain could easily be formed by any number of lightning strikes in the primordial soup? It even seems possible there could be a few or even many different or even more complex ‘versions’ of Polymerase that are found today in differing species of life?
I put this to the statistical grindstone using this web site where you can play with, and see the numbers yourself.
http://www.mathsisfun.com/combinatorics/combinations-permutations-calculator.html
Now each position in the Polymerase can be one of the 21 amino acides. For ease I assumed this Polymerase had only 150 amino acids (though human Polymerase has well above 1500 amino acids). Any of the 21 amino acids can be in any of the 150 positions, so they are by necessity, used repeatedly in the Polymerase chain.
So then when we caluclate the possibility (called permutations) of all the possible combinations that could result in just this very small Polymerase molecule, it comes out to be approximately 2.15e+198. That is 215 followed by 196 zeros. To be exact, it is this number below.
2 152 257 401 894 210 849 885 399 868 533 172 047 094 163 420 920 727 026 962 278 759 017 034 895 319 568 745 161 079 062 558 145 992 014 802 928 189 547 119 043 302 873 473 685 146 590 883 138 249 855 396 449 099 342 449 700 439 725 977 978 670 553 308 554 873 001 different molecules (only one of which is a working Polymerase)
If you think that number is big, if the Polymerase were 1500 amino acids long, the number of possible combinations is approximately 2.13e+1983 or exactly this number below.
21 327 605 595 598 160 180 899 447 703 641 670 434 686 908 841 092 471 658 094 103 347 464 222 689 888 544 439 392 701 598 815 586 918 168 396 795 066 376 551 950 958 841 391 614 565 170 196 392 585 053 665 720 466 033 860 566 235 852 236 478 295 076 616 625 842 724 721 353 313 439 355 792 228 660 952 086 743 561 940 930 763 992 500 407 886 582 123 300 951 282 648 566 666 595 051 509 690 495 092 556 825 037 125 270 886 129 909 446 340 279 105 911 060 984 266 085 238 265 835 763 738 327 781 062 301 124 505 948 579 816 782 070 312 992 245 030 518 655 549 811 691 956 569 874 009 265 525 434 077 795 178 579 186 447 310 049 001 895 241 906 551 490 729 527 854 504 848 686 058 536 782 481 294 797 048 146 208 405 257 649 432 177 502 793 167 110 356 169 382 963 249 803 424 944 444 323 737 131 157 977 715 361 111 108 174 252 371 649 867 549 681 889 239 621 105 454 483 155 439 712 930 315 189 599 240 178 708 061 575 742 220 747 178 434 545 098 863 361 021 913 952 634 124 409 209 150 861 621 295 281 902 990 245 568 979 621 719 956 266 531 112 062 620 705 171 871 698 213 591 577 624 318 481 698 854 939 356 547 175 997 768 168 744 961 203 708 739 241 293 226 575 639 729 480 455 379 162 217 467 977 958 181 462 561 500 736 288 050 803 462 917 231 555 665 639 371 438 060 836 777 937 697 955 190 574 188 535 598 359 730 010 218 935 605 645 290 461 892 585 029 548 945 001 677 010 273 281 573 709 988 071 053 329 969 882 642 266 666 894 027 369 312 423 585 698 106 287 356 866 034 145 347 675 385 683 788 895 237 920 825 955 090 863 146 599 436 907 334 954 706 608 668 091 735 773 015 140 451 960 567 745 619 889 777 311 109 388 100 078 713 550 732 272 685 746 274 360 779 251 021 133 652 556 128 392 140 287 269 720 955 120 703 707 897 188 817 855 328 480 864 319 412 103 501 188 209 698 392 940 828 268 793 712 421 463 812 252 298 033 836 918 906 134 467 637 967 845 855 353 541 300 779 175 265 845 246 050 308 315 239 779 398 893 519 098 778 520 515 497 009 977 764 232 142 650 583 790 637 792 384 676 572 037 933 213 096 124 284 652 076 937 708 716 057 245 582 275 565 514 954 005 877 868 494 014 506 096 776 142 795 003 475 506 947 634 673 798 658 294 652 603 700 881 559 412 880 645 762 308 293 638 721 645 828 499 584 152 197 647 498 345 403 022 524 757 260 517 650 337 457 583 929 846 908 107 813 203 207 650 049 707 252 535 981 090 249 537 768 281 609 117 202 635 681 554 861 118 252 078 371 006 104 239 505 643 661 436 484 815 415 600 328 475 105 516 996 340 037 753 873 456 548 671 464 425 300 473 057 875 483 511 847 113 245 904 846 660 353 433 433 517 961 366 605 093 193 648 001 632 161 337 682 862 025 289 088 792 013 537 30 001 different molecules (only one of which is a working Polymerase)
So how does this all relate to the primordial soup?
I come now to the key point of this exercise. If we assume that each lightning strike produces a string of amino acids, i.e, a protein, of the correct length, what would be the chances of that protein being a functional molecule of Polymerase? In other words, what are the chances that the correct combination of amino acids in the correct order occur if assume that the correct length is created each and every time?
Well, for a Polymerase of only 150 amino acids, it would be 1 chance in ~2.15e+198 (remember that first big number). For a 1500 amino acid string it would be 1 chance in ~ 2.13e+1983.
Ok. That sounds possible. But then is it?
The universe, at its largest estimate, is 45 billion years old. Now suppose that lightning strikes the earth some 50 times a second (as on average it does now). If we assume (unrealistically of course) that each strike produced a sequence of amino acids that was never again repeated and each time the correct length, how many times in the life of the universe would we see the correct sequence occur which would produce a functional Polymerase molecule? Surely it must occur quite often.
If the universe is 45 billion years old (its actually 13.6 billion years old, but we can see about 45+ billion lights of light due to universe expansion), then there have been 1.4191200e+18 seconds so far. Multiplied by 50 strikes for each second and that means that there are 7.0956e+18 chances to get a functional Polymerase molecule from the moment the universe came into being until now. That number expanded is this.
7095600000000000000 chances
But wait a moment. That’s a really small number compared to the other numbers. What it means is that there is not enough time in the current life of our universe for even one working Polymerase molecule to ever occur! Not only that, but it would take this many universes, each of 45 billion years, to find just one good Polymerase molecule.
30 332 282 004 259 130 304 490 104 692 107 391 159 227 738 611 544 154 503 668 171 247 210 030 093 573 041 675 983 413 137 129 291 279 311 163 653 384 451 195 717 104 592 616 341 769 418 838 974 150 958 290 336 255 460 421 957 829 161 423 6.8 045 765 415 968 872 universes of 45 billion years each
The problem thickens however (as if it weren’t thick enough already)! Just as DNA is useless without Polymerase, Polymerase is useless without DNA. The same calculations for the correct permutations of DNA sequences are equally staggering in themselves. When combined the possibilites that both DNA and Polymerase would be created, let alone present in the exact same primordial soup bowl, become so infinitesimally small as to be zero.
Armed with this knowledge, let us now examine the two possibilities for life.
Item 1. Early in Earth’s history, DNA and Polymerase were created de novo through natural processes, and in notable quantities from conditions that were common, and also common enough to have produced multiple chemical forms and even multiple chemical variations within species.
Item 2. DNA and Polymerase were not created de novo through natural processes, but through the action of some other unknown outside force. DNA and Polymerase were created differently in various species which then began propagating each other in a complementary way so that they specifically acted according to their chemical nature as we see it today.
These two possibilities are mutually exclusive. The Law of the Excluded Middle and the Law of Non-Contradiction tells us for two cases A and B, that if case A is true then case B cannot be true, and if case A is false, then case B must be true. Either item 1 above is true or item 2 is true, but they cannot not both be true or false as shown by the statistics I’ve presented.
Let me repeat. Item 1 is true and item 2 is false, or item 1 is false and item 2 is true. There are no other cases possible.
Now clearly I have demonstrated that item 1 is not only unlikely, but infinitesimally impossible. There is zero chance that DNA or Polymerase or both ever arose de novo by any natural forces at any time ever. There just has not been enough time!
The answer to the question ‘which came first, the chicken or the egg?’ is really analogous to ‘which came first, the DNA or the Polymerase?’
Neither came first. They both came together. Nothing in nature can tell us why and statistics exclude their presence by chance occurrence altogether.
L
